TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/071690/0716005.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 8KB | 157 lines

                ▀$┘                                                          WORLD, Page 36

THE PHILIPPINES

A Muddle-Through Mode


A TIME correspondent who covered Cory Aquino's rise to power
returns to find the President hanging on in the face of
obstinate problems and persistent criticism

By SANDRA BURTON/MANILA -- With reporting by Nelly Sindayen and
William Stewart/Manila


    Even on relatively slow news days, the front-page headlines
of Manila's 23 daily newspapers scream of worsening terrorism,
new coup threats, prolonged power brownouts, mounting protests
against U.S. military bases. Last week they were shrieking at
a fever pitch. The U.S. Government had discovered that a Peace
Corps volunteer working on the island of Negros had been
kidnaped in June by communist insurgents; just days earlier,
officials in Manila had denied that such Americans were at risk
and had lambasted Washington for suspending the Philippines'
Peace Corps program. Then came the even more riveting news that
a New York court had cleared former First Lady Imelda Marcos
of all charges that she had raided the Philippine treasury
during her husband Ferdinand's tenure and invested the funds
illegally in America, potentially opening the way for Imelda's
return to Manila.

    As embarrassing and disquieting as the latest news was, it's
a safe bet that President Corazon Aquino took in the headlines
with astonishing equanimity. On a recent morning in Manila,
seated across from me in the calm of her office, the President
confessed that she only read the front pages of eight papers.
Her explanation was vintage Cory: "I want to start out the day
feeling very positive and confident."

    Positive thinking got Aquino where she is today. It has
always been her most striking trait. But now it has been
tempered by the experience of governing, the harsh realities
of her country's condition and the perspective she has gained
as the first of a swelling corps of leaders propelled into
authority by people power. For better or worse, she is their
role model. She is, in effect, writing the handbook on how to
hang on even as she does so.

    Ask Aquino why Filipinos hanker for another strongman so
soon after Marcos' departure, and she demonstrates her
tolerance: "The problem with some of our people is that they
would like to have the best of both worlds. They would like me
to have some dictatorial powers, with everybody else living
under a democracy."

    Accuse her of allowing herself to be bullied by an unruly
Congress, and she takes offense: "Nobody bullies me. I dare
anybody to come here and tell me what to do, because I feel I
do not have any political debts to pay, and I only want to be
President for one term."

    Question her about why the military remains her gravest
threat, and she reacts defensively at first: "Why am I being
judged so severely? When I assumed office, I did not have a
single general with me." On further reflection, she tells with
self-deprecating humor how the armed forces Chief of Staff,
General Renato de Villa, tried to cheer her up when Violeta
Barrios de Chamorro, the newly elected President of Nicaragua,
had to adjudicate between the Sandinista military and the
contras: "At least, ma'am, you only have one army. She has
two."

    Four punishing years into her six-year term, Aquino remains
surprisingly undaunted by the precarious state of her country
and her tenuous grip on the helm. Her government is struggling
to cope with a store of major problems -- economic, political
and security-related -- which have created a growing crisis of
confidence among liberal activists over the ability of fragile
democratic institutions to deliver reform.

    Negotiations over the future of U.S. military facilities in
the Philippines pose another crucial test for Aquino, pitting
growing Philippine demands for a less colonial relationship
with the U.S. against practical economic and military
questions. Both sides have toned down their rhetoric, but the
talks, scheduled to resume in August, are expected to be
difficult and prolonged. Eventually, Manila is expected to
accept a new treaty that would gradually turn portions of the
purely governmental installations over to private control. But
on timing and money -- how much more the U.S. will pay above
its current $481 million a year -- the two sides remain far
apart.

    The estimated $1 billion a year of income that the bases
contribute to the economy is likely to be more crucial than
ever, given the bleak prognosis for 1990. In the wake of a
December 1989 coup attempt -- the seventh in three years -- and
a crippling power shortage, the government slashed rosy
estimates of future foreign investment and pared projections
for growth in the gross national product from 6% a year to 4%.

    With civilian support ebbing, though still high for a
lame-duck President, a military takeover attempt remains a
constant threat. But the armed forces have been moving
aggressively to reshuffle major commands, capture and
court-martial rebel leaders and hamstring civilian sympathizers
like former Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile by prosecuting
them on charges of rebellion.

    Yet the emergence of a younger and more idealistic group of
dissident officers, known as the Young Officers Union, hints
that coup threats are not likely to end with Aquino's term.
There are signs that YOU is even more strongly opposed to a
return to old-style politics, in which money and congressional
clout are all that count. YOU officers helped their comrades
bring down Ferdinand Marcos, then watched, says one, as they
"forfeited power to a weak President" and "the military rushed
to protect all the new fat-cat politicians."

    While the U.S. recognizes Aquino's shortcomings, Washington
is not about to countenance a premature end to her presidency.
U.S. negotiator Richard Armitage said the "central tenet" of
U.S. policy was "unqualified support for the leadership of
President Corazon Aquino and the permanence of democracy." The
Bush Administration has served notice to potential coup leaders
that the overthrow of Aquino would result in termination of
U.S. military and economic aid, as well as trade preferences.

    At a time of high anxiety about Aquino's staying power,
however, the prospect of a presidential election in May 1992
is probably the best anti-coup medicine around."The government
has inertia on its side," says a Western diplomat, "which may
prevent it from getting a lot of things done, but also protects
it in an odd way. It is now in a muddle-through mode."

    But can the system correct itself at the polls? As the
electorate has discovered, democracy by itself does not solve
problems: it simply holds them up to public scrutiny and
invites participation in their resolution. Aquino's critics
believe she has failed; she maintains that the public debate
about whether or not that is so proves she is succeeding.

    Looking forward to life after the presidency, a remarkably
sanguine Aquino gamely offers to provide tea and sympathy to
other novice world leaders who find themselves presiding over
similar difficult political transitions. Says she: "Whenever
I read about the problems of these new democratic leaders, I
say oh-oh, you are just entering Grade 1. Wait and see what you
are up against."